Editor's Note: Our colleague Chris Mayer, editor of Capital & Crisis and Mayer's Special Situations, is back with some surprising notes on the market's history-making drop over the past few months. Enjoy
Pausing to Breathe By Chris Mayer December 1, 2008 "Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. But today is a gift. That is why it is called the present." Old saying, recently revived in Kung Fu Panda I watched Kung Fu Panda last weekend as part of my son's 10-year birthday party. There were some good quotes in it, including the one above. Another one I liked, also from the wise old turtle Master Oogway: "Your mind is like water. When it's agitated you can barely see clearly. But once you become quiet and are in peace, then everything becomes clear
" Certainly, the market's recent dramatic swings have scrambled the heads of many investors. Mostly, it's been a nasty slide down a history-making drop. And that will make a lot of people give up. (From the November 24 issue of Wall Street Journal, "'I just don't have the stomach for it anymore,' says [semiretired computer programmer Eugene] Hibbs, 66 years old
Now, Mr. Hibbs is sitting on Treasury bills.") But now is the time to really pay attention. It's been a history-making drop, and it may also seed some equally breathtaking opportunities. ************************************** Act Before Your "Paycheck" Goes to Someone Else
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************************************** Last week's rally notwithstanding, this bear market has few precedents. Really, you have to look back to the 1930s. According to Barron's, at the low on November 20, the S&P 500 has given back a decade worth of gains. Even after surge on Friday, November 21, 2008 would still be the worst year for stocks since 1931, when they dropped 53%. In the whole of the 20th century, no decline has exceeded 50%, save for the 1929-32 bear market. The S&P 500 is off 45% from its October 2007 high that's after last week's rally. Whether our bear market looks ultimately more like 1929-32 or 1937-38 is an open question, of course. The former went on to post a total loss of 86% top to bottom. The latter, though, rallied and made up 50% of the losses in the next six months. Another hopeful message: The average time to recoup a bear market loss has been 22 months, excluding the 1929-32 collapse. As with the big crash, so with the rebound it will come when people least expect it. ************************************** $5,000 Worth of Valuable Options Research for Just 13 Cents Per Day
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************************************** Resource stocks look like they've already had their 1929-32 style crash in just the last few months. Many resource names are already down 80% or worse from top to bottom. It's incredibly ugly out there. Even companies that looked like they were in decent financial shape only a few months are now scrambling to raise liquidity and stave off a financial crisis. A strong balance sheet means that financially, you are in control of your own destiny. It means you don't need to raise money, nor do you have a looming debt coming due soon. It means you're going to be a survivor. It's going to come down to the survivors. The upside could be spectacular on the other side for them. Regards, Chris Mayer P.S.: For a short time, my publisher is offering a special discount to new members of Mayer's Special Situations. Until midnight tonight, you can join my readers, and get $250 off the normal membership price, by taking advantage of this exclusive offer
Editor's Note: As always send any questions or concerns to us at jim@pennysleuth.com.
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