How to Tell When a Penny Stock Will Pop
By Jim Nelson
June 12, 2009
When you are about to invest in a penny stock, the number one question you need to ask yourself is: What’s the catalyst?
Without some big event or monolithic development coming down the road, there’s no reason for investors to care about these tiny companies.
You see, the majority of investors are only interested in making 5%–10% per year. That’s pretty much the maximum you can expect to gain if you are investing in blue chips. Here at Penny Sleuth, we view the stock market a little differently.
We want the money multipliers — double-, triple-, even quadruple-digit gains. For that to happen, we need some kind of spark to set our penny stocks apart from the rest. After all, there are currently over 6,000 to choose from.
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So, what kind of catalysts can make a penny stock pop? Let’s look at a couple big ones:
- Commercialization — After years of research and development, and sometimes painstakingly long clinical trials and efficacy tests, there comes a time in any successful start up company’s life when it needs to actually manufacture and sell its products or services. Just take a look at what happened to Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE: TTM)…
As you might already know, this was the growth story of last year, and it continues to today. Tata is the Indian car giant that made its mark on the global economy, when it released the world’s cheapest car.
In March of this year, the company commercialized a new product. It started selling the Tata Nano in India. Investors were so excited by this car design, they started buying enormous amounts of Tata stock. Since the company started pre-selling the car, shares are up 165%.
- Buyout Candidates — Sometimes, it’s as simple as waiting for a larger competitor to buy the penny stock. When one company buys another, they agree on a price. Many times, that price is much higher than what the soon-to-be-purchased company’s share price is currently trading. This gives those shareholders an instant gain.
A few weeks ago, I discussed the consolidation of the soda industry. Both PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) are buying out their bottling operations to save on expenses and double spending.
Pepsi is in the process of buying its two largest bottlers: PepsiAmericas and Pepsi Bottling Group. Shares of both of these companies popped more than 22% the day it was announced. From their March lows, PepsiAmericas is up 67% and Pepsi Bottling Group is up 94%.
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- Legal Battles — The last of the major catalysts is court rulings. In many cases, a simple ruling can make or break a penny stock. Hardly any company has been entrenched in the courtroom like TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO).
We wrote about TiVo back in December 2007. Its revolutionary digital recording technology is both a huge moneymaker and a legal nightmare. You see, plenty of other competitors claim rights to certain patents TiVo profits from.
It takes a tech geek to decipher the differences between most of its intellectual properties, which isn’t usually a prerequisite for a judge. For the last five years, TiVo has been tied up in court with its competitor EchoStar Communications Corp, now part of Dish Network Corp., over a patent dispute. The court finally ruled in favor of TiVo, rewarding the company $103 million plus interest.
Upon the day of the ruling, shares of TiVo jumped 53%. This gain sent TiVo’s stock over $11 per share and out of penny stock land. That just a drop in the bucket of what a lawsuit ruling can do for a company. Imagine what $103-plus can do for an even smaller company…
These are just four types of things to consider when thinking about buying a penny stock. But even if you do have the perfect catalyst lined up, that’s only the beginning.
Sincerely,
Jim Nelson
P.S.: Catalysts, or Profit Catapults as we sometimes refer to them, make up just one section of our five-part CXS Money-Multiplier System. Here’s a detailed report on how it works…
