 | TOP STORIES |  | |
| Scything Up The Grain Markets | | By Chris McMahon, 13 Nov 2008, 03:00 AM | | In spring, grain markets were literally and figuratively hit by a perfect storm. Tight supply, aggravated by inflation and weather concerns, propelled futures prices to all-time highs in July. Now comes harvest. Will grain prices come back down to earth? |
| Lower Costs Help Boost Trans Hex | | By Charlotte Mathews, 13 Nov 2008, 08:49 AM | | Diamond miner Trans Hex believed it was in a better position than its competitors to weather the sudden downturn in rough diamond demand, which had seen even prices for top-quality stones drop as low as after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S., CEO Llewellyn Delport said yesterday. |
| Anticipating The Climate Black Swan | | By Michael Ferrari, PhD, Vice President, Applied Technology & Commodity Research, Weather Trends International, 13 Nov 2008, 06:00 AM | | "Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks - when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur - I shiver at the thought." --- Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan (2007) |
| Highveld To Follow Peer And Cut Production | | By Mathabo le Roux, 13 Nov 2008, 08:33 AM | | The global slowdown is starting to bite as steel maker Highveld Steel & Vanadium said yesterday it would follow larger peer ArcelorMittal SA's lead and cut production in the face of a significant drop in demand for steel. |
| What's Worse Than Losing A Fortune? | | By Michel Pireu, 13 Nov 2008, 08:42 AM | | At the beginning of last month, Forbes magazine recalculated the wealth of those Americans who had made it onto the Forbes 400 list published a month earlier. |
| Seasonal Trade, Technical Entry | | By Bill Biedermann, Senior VP, Allendale Inc., 13 Nov 2008, 12:00 AM | | Markets always find a value and always provide an opportunity. According to Moore Research, seasonal lows in soybeans are typically in place the first week of October and the market moves substantially higher into February. |
| Soda Ash 'Cartel' Wants Competition Law Exemption | | By Mathabo le Roux, 13 Nov 2008, 08:24 AM | | A U.S. industry body, which has effectively admitted that its members operate as an export cartel in SA, has launched a bid to secure exemption from competition legislation in this market. |
| Why We'll Stick With Buy-And-Hold | | By Ben Temkin, 13 Nov 2008, 08:38 AM | | For some days now people have been telling me the Private Investor portfolio's "buy and hold” policy is not working. The market is in reverse gear and the logical strategy is to dump shares, take losses and wait for recovery. |
| How Bad Could The Crisis Get? Lessons From Iceland | | By Jon Danielsson, 13 Nov 2008, 07:00 AM | | Iceland's banking system is ruined. GDP is down 65% in euro terms. Many companies face bankruptcy; others think of moving abroad. A third of the population is considering emigration. The British and Dutch governments demand compensation, amounting to over 100% of Icelandic GDP, for their citizens who held high-interest deposits in local branches of Icelandic banks. Europe's leaders urgently need to take step to prevent similar things from happening to small nations with big banking sectors. |
| Smartest Guys In The Room | | By Ginger Szala, 13 Nov 2008, 04:00 AM | | The October rout of the stock market and the bailout plan reminded me of a line in the movie "Armageddon.” In the movie, Earth was being threatened by a killer meteor, and NASA was trying to determine how to destroy the rock before it hit. One U.S. military general suggested shooting up a bunch of nuclear weapons to destroy the meteor. But a (of course, brilliant) physicist responded, and I paraphrase: "You could shoot up as many weapons as you wanted but they would just bounce off and the meteor would keep on smiling.” |
| Capitalise On The Crisis: How To Move Forward | | By Richard Portes, 13 Nov 2008, 02:00 AM | | The financial crisis offers opportunities for reform. This article argues the IMF and Financial Stability Forum should be refocused and beefed up, the G7 scrapped, the G20 reshuffled, and group memberships suited to the issues. On November 15, leaders should agree on principles, rather than getting bogged down in details, and explain their reforms to the public. |
| What The G20 Should Do On November 15th To Fix The Financial System | | By Barry Eichengreen and Richard Baldwin, 13 Nov 2008, 01:00 AM | | This article introduces a collection of essays by leading economists from around the world on what the G20 leaders should do this weekend. Four priorities are identified: nations should act quickly to strengthen and coordinate their firefighting responses; they should immediately reinforce the IMF's ability to fire-fight the crisis as it spreads to emerging markets and vulnerable developing nations; they should 'above all, do no harm'. Finally, they should start 'thinking outside the box' when it comes to long-run fixes. |
| The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy Depends On The Financing And Monetary Policy Mix | | By Giancarlo Corsetti and Gernot Müller, 13 Nov 2008, 12:00 AM | | Governments are crafting fiscal stimulus packages to counter the crisis. This article highlights factors that are crucial in determining the effectiveness of such measures: the financing mix--taxes vs future spending cuts, and accompanying monetary policy. To illustrate the importance of these considerations, simulations results are presented for several stimulus packages. |
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