Greg's Note: Policy-makers continue scheming to fight reality…but reality is a tough old bird with a perfect record of wins. Jim Kunstler explains that nothing is going to stop the hard changes that are a-comin'…but maybe — just maybe — we'll be better off in the end… Send all questions and comments to greg@whiskeyandgunpowder.com. Whiskey & Gunpowder
The G-20 came to Washington for the weekend and sucked all the air out of the city before announcing that they were really serious about patching all the leaks in the foundering ship of globalism. Well, they have to at least pretend that they are doing something. Meanwhile, the former bit player known as reality has taken center stage in the ship's main lounge. It is putting on an act even gnarlier than the Kit Kat Klub show in Cabaret. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Crashing Stocks Are Creating Fortunes If you think that steep declines in stock prices only mean wealth destruction, think again… You can reliably use this approach to make big "wealth recovering" plays against today's crushing waves of collapsing shares. Find out how to anticipate which companies are going to fall the most…and how to profit…by clicking here. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ This reality show is sending some clear signals to the denizens of the real and really crowded world. The main signal is that the trade and financing rackets of recent decades are over. The extravaganza of economic hypergrowth based on cheap resources is over. The promiscuous swapping around of risk and rewards is over. There is no global institutional framework for managing the impairment left in the wake of this binge. It will be up to the individual nations now to figure out their national lives and livings. Alas, the financial impairment is still on-going world-wide and has quite a ways to run before it's finished working its hoodoo on the so-called advanced economies. The lame duck U.S. economic posse so far has done everything possible except the two things that really matter: Allow the fraudulent securities at the heart of the problem to be exposed to the light of day to determine their actual value; and allow those companies who trafficked in them to suffer the full consequences by going out-of-business. For the moment, they're content to shovel cash into the truck-bed of every enterprise in America that shows up at the Treasury loading dock. This can only have the effect of eventually destroying the value of that cash. The world has changed faster than anyone realizes. One big question is how long the American people will stumble around in a daze before we get back to work doing constructive things in this country — and by that I mean activities scaled to the resource realities of the years just ahead. More specifically, I mean how we are going to grow the food we eat without massive quantities of diesel fuel and petroleum-based "inputs" and also how we are going to make any of the useful products we need in an energy scarcer time. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The End of Cheap Oil You wouldn't think so. After all, oil prices just plummeted… But the fundamentals are clear as day. Oil is destined to get a lot more expensive. It's going to change life in the U.S. and the world…forever…but you can protect yourself and prosper… Click here to take advantage of oil's temporarily lower prices. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The transportation quandary suggests that we have to move away from the private automobile and commercial trucking, and that the airline industry is certain to contract dramatically. When are we going to start the discussion about rebuilding a U.S. public transit system that was once the envy of the world? It no longer matters how much Americans love their cars, or even how much investment we've made in car infrastructure. At some point, we just have to face the fact that democratic mass motoring is no longer on the program. Nor is a commercial economy based on incessant motoring. One other implication of this is the necessity to use our waterways for moving things and people again. Has anybody noticed, for instance, that the once-bustling New York City Harbor, possibly the biggest and best sheltered deepwater harbor in the world, has next-to-zero operating docks left along its massive perimeter? While you're at it, have a look at the waterfronts of Louisville, Cincinnati, Kansas City and a score of other inland port cities on great navigable rivers. What you'll see are condo sites, festival marketplaces, picnic grounds, and plain old empty lots — everything but the infrastructure for commerce. We can't afford this anymore. We have to put these places back to work. The G-20 leaders in Washington last week made a lot of noise about ramping up domestic spending. In the decades to come, this will not happen without import replacement — which is just what it sounds like: Instead of importing things you need, you make them at home, and people get paid a living wage to do it. Import replacement, by the way, is exactly how the United States rose in the 19th century to become the world's preeminent manufacturing nation. It doesn't foreclose trade with other countries, but it self-evidently changes the terms of that trade, and it would spell the end of the kind of predatory "globalism" that has led to the current state of gross imbalance and reckless destruction. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Deficit Time Bomb Well, Election Day has come and gone…and our deficits are still there…and growing… Those deficits are going to wreak more havoc on the economy and individual savings than can be properly imagined. We're still offering solutions in our "Personal Bailout Bundle" and it's still exclusive till Dec 21. Don't miss out. Just click here to read more. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I believe this will happen whether we like it or not, because these things occur in cycles and the current cycle is obviously ending with a thundering crash of economies, modes of operation, habits and practices, and expectations. For better or worse, we have to move on to new ways of doing things. I regard the most dangerous fantasy in America right now to be the wish that we can keep running things just the way they are now (my recurring synecdoche of Wal-Mart, Walt Disney World, and the interstate highway system) by replacing oil and gas with "alternative fuels." This just ain't gonna happen. We're going to use every kind of alt.energy there is and they will still require us to live very differently than we did the past sixty years. The public just doesn't get this. Regards, Greg's Endnote: I've carefully expunged any mention of Obama from Jim's thoughtful analysis this time around and I hope that that satisfies some of those extreme voices which tend to write in whenever they see Obama's name in a putatively anarcho-libertarian letter such as ours. Freed up a little space for me to address this. Whiskey Shooters will forgive me I hope. I have a constitutional tendency to recognize the correctness of an idea even if the source doesn't have the same political or religious leanings as my own. One of the smartest men I know believes in a six-day creation. Doesn't jibe with his otherwise very scientific view of the world nor mine, but I'd be a fool to dismiss his knowledge and experience because of his fondness for the Book of Genesis. In a similar vein, I don't agree with Jim politically, but we've come to a lot of the same conclusions on some very important matters even if we start from different political ideals. His voice definitely needs to be heard at the Whiskey Bar. For the un-edited Kunstler, you can tune in at www.kunstler.com. I also recommend Jim's latest novel if you want an up close and personal look at what an energy-scarce world may look like. |
Whiskey & Gunpowder Special Reports New "Backlash" Set to Rocket Oil Past $150...and Send Gas Soaring to Over $6 per Gallon The 10 Shocking Reasons for China's Pollution Problem Geothermal Energy: Investment in the Future Here's One Coal Stock That's Set to Skyrocket Investing in Exchange Traded Funds The Real Story Behind the True Gold Bull Market If someone forwarded you this copy, please look here to start your own subscription. Wanna let us know what you thought of today's issue? Now you can... click on this link. Whiskey & Gunpowder is a free e-mail service brought to you by a team of rebellious brigands. If you have not already done so, please click here to confirm your subscription. This will help us ensure you get every Whiskey & Gunpowder without interruption. Are you having trouble receiving your Whiskey & Gunpowder? You can ensure its arrival in your mailbox here. Please note: we sent this e-mail to finan4@finanmart.com because you subscribed to this service. To end your Whiskey & Gunpowder e-mail subscription, click here. Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice.We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. © 2008 Agora Financial, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the World Wide Web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Agora Financial, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. |
