Gary's Note: While the criminals in charge at the fed shackle us all to eternal debt, the rest of the world may decide that holding U.S. treasuries isn't such a bright idea. Dan Denning has the scoop. Send all questions and comments to gary@whiskeyandgunpowder.com.
"U.S. financial firms have taken write downs and losses of $666.1 billion since the beginning of 2007," according to Bloomberg. There you have it. The number of the bust. The financial end times rolled on yesterday. The latest twist is the decision of U.S. regulators to come to the aid Citigroup, the world's largest financial services firm. The Feds stepped in to guarantee around U.S. $306 billion of Citi's troubled assets. In exchange, Uncle Sam gets preferred shares with an 8% dividend. That news was enough to send the S&P 500 up 6.5% on the day. It continued last Friday's rally, and set just the right tone for decent days here in Australia. Whether that actually happens is something we'll get to in a minute. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Deficit Time Bomb Well, Election Day has come and gone…and our deficits are still there…and growing… Those deficits are going to wreak more havoc on the economy and individual savings than can be properly imagined. We're still offering solutions in our "Personal Bailout Bundle" and it's still exclusive till Dec 21. Don't miss out. Just click here to read more. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ What do you make of this latest triage of the broken financial system? It keeps things ticking over. But how do you fix a nation that has too much debt by adding more debt? The U.S. government, through its various agency paramedics, is injecting money and buying equity all over the economic shop. But it's not cheap. Bloomberg tallied up the various commitments, loans, and guarantees made on behalf of the U.S. taxpayer by various Federal agencies and non-elected officials. It was not a small number. It came to U.S. $7.76 trillion, a vaguely patriotic sum, echoing the year the Declaration of Independence was proclaimed in 1776. You can read the Bloomberg article as an explication of dependence. Or better yet, a pledge of eternal subservience to the power of debt. The $7 trillion plus figure is nearly half of annual U.S. GDP. Just under half of it — $3.18 trillion — is money tapped by financial firms through various auction facilities. It goes to rebuild balance sheets, rather than building factories, bridges, or new sources of power. The Federal Reserve is the biggest instrument of this ramp up in commitments. The Fed has pledged $4.74 trillion on behalf of Americans. That's 61% of the total amount, and $24,000 for every man, woman, and child in America (born free, but now everywhere in debt). More on this in a moment. Here in Australia, local shares should get a boost from rising commodity prices (provided no more margin loans get called on insiders and short sellers cover). Oil was up $4.50 to $54.43 for a 9% gain on the day. Gold shot up nearly $30 to $821.90 for almost a four percent gain. Copper was up 6%, nickel 7%, zinc 6.4%, and tin 11.3%. And what, pray tell, may have led to that move? Chinese monthly refined copper imports were up 15% in October, an eight month high. But what China gives it may also take a way. Cochilco, China's state-run copper outfit, cut is forecast for copper prices in 2009. Where does that leave us with the base metals and with base metal shares? We asked Diggers and Drillers editor Al Robinson. "China's resurgent demand for raw materials is already surprising the market," he wrote to us via e-mail from 2 metres away. "It reverted to 'net importer' status in all base metals for October, according to the London Metal Exchange (LME). China already needs more resources than it can get its hands on." "It's buying more rock than it's selling, in other words. That's great news for the Australian resource sector in 2009. "But this story goes further," he adds. "China isn't experiencing some sort of meek comeback, following the Olympic slowdown. It actually imported enough copper in October to offset the rest of the LME's inventory rise. The 'rest of the world' may not be setting commodity demand ablaze. But China is already starting to fill in the gaps created by Western recession — on its own." While China fills the gaps, you may also start to see some short covering from traders who went short the base metals. That short covering could lead to big one day moves in the shares (which are appallingly over-sold). But it may not quite mark the bottom in metals prices. That's going to be a function of supply and demand (with supply tightening as projects are shelved and demand idling). ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The End of Cheap Oil You wouldn't think so. After all, oil prices just plummeted… But the fundamentals are clear as day. Oil is destined to get a lot more expensive. It's going to change life in the U.S. and the world…forever…but you can protect yourself and prosper… Click here to take advantage of oil's temporarily lower prices. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The other thing to look for is bargain hunting. Investors and fund managers who liquidated long positions in the resource sector earlier this year to raise cash may begin nibbling if they find the right share at the right price. Take China for example. Recently the Australian reported that "Rio may sell stakes to china to reduce debt." Rio's Chairman Paul Skinner was in Melbourne to discuss, among other things, the possibility of Rio selling assets or an equity stake to China Inc. in order to help pay off some of Rio's U.S. $9 billion in debt that matures in 2009. Maybe Rio should first ask the Fed before giving up equity to China. Bernanke can be pretty accommodating, we hear. And now it is time to bring that U.S. $7.76 trillion back into the picture and put it in the context of Australian resource equities. The Citigroup bailout deal prompted a rally in stocks and a rise in U.S. bond yields on Monday. The yield on two-year U.S. notes rose as the government auctioned another U.S. $36 billion of them into the market. It's hard to believe the Citigroup deal unleashed a lot of pent up bullishness on U.S. financial stocks. It's easier to believe that the ever-increasing supply of U.S. government bonds is prompting investors who've rushed into them to look around for other, more desirable assets. Chinese investors, for instance, might decide than an equity stake in Rio Tinto — with its portfolio of iron ore, coal, and other assets — is a better investment than more promises to pay by the U.S. government. Perhaps we've been hasty, though, in calling the pricking of the bond bubble in the past. It could be that the U.S. dollar becomes the clear winner in the global currency wipe out currently taking place. The dollar could end up being the preferred liquid currency in which to ride out the global crisis, despite the inflationary nature of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy. If that's the case, then the U.S. Treasury market will continue to suck up the world's supply of available savings and capital the way a bush fire sucks up oxygen. A fire sucking up all the oxygen in a system leads to a massive destruction of life. Hence the Greek word "holokaustos." According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a holocaust is a "sacrifice consumed by fire," or, "a thorough destruction involving extensive loss of life especially through fire." The holocaust of the Treasuries, then, is what we're getting at. First crowd all the world's capital into the U.S. bond market. Then burn it up. Smart money generally goes where it's treated best (for yield and capital appreciation). In times of fear, what's safe is smart. And so now the world's investors and savers have an interesting choice: is the U.S. bond market safer than cash? Is it smart to play it safe? Or are equities safer than bonds? Or are equity stakes in projects with tangible assets better bets still, even in a world with a shrinking economy? Our guess is that the printing of the Treasuries (increasing in the supply of U.S. bonds to fund the mega bailout, fuelling the eventual inflationary fire) will gradually spook investors now and into 2009. The leading edge of bargain hunters may already be finding their way into over-sold resource stocks for refuge. And will they find it? Or will their courage end in more losses? It wouldn't be surprising to see big one-day gains in over-sold resource stocks in the coming months. But we reckon the real story is that investors are rethinking their long-term asset allocation and will execute a new strategy after reviewing their 2009 performance. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Get Gold Cheap… Before It Takes Off Again Gold is giving you another chance to get in for the inevitable ride up at a bargain. Here's how to get it at a discount and multiply those gains. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ More cash, fewer shares. And of the money that remains in shares, it will probably be parked in long-term positions that are selling at cheap valuations, perhaps with a nice yield. Expectations will be lowered and time horizons-for equities anyway-will be lengthened. You'll have to expect less and be willing to wait longer. Not that being in the equity market during the most serious financial crisis since 1929 is a sure thing. We live in dangerous times. Not much is certain. But for investors, the actions taken by U.S. monetary officials are starting to lead to movements in global capital. This could signal the beginning of the bottom in commodity prices, and the beginning of bargain hunting in resource shares. Regards, Parting Shot: Well, you can't say you haven't been warned. You know full well that the fed is gathering wood and squirting accelerant all over the place. They are going to make sure this currency burns till there is nothing left. A central bank needs the zealotry of a witch-hunter and the enthusiasm of an arsonist. The purported duty of a central bank is to protect the value of the currency it issues…but a central bank's true function — the one decreed to it by Fate — is to do just the opposite…and how! I suspect that a central bank is one of those purging forces of nature, like drought, famine and plague. Central banks ruin their issued currency and thereby nations…but nations need ruining from time to time. It's just the way things work. You need the occasional die-off and extinction to clear the way for the new. Still, there's no reason you can't make like Noah…or Lot. Either build thyself an ark…or get the helloutta town. Some of us have plans to flee to the Argentine countryside. The rest of us may want to stay in place and fed-proof our lives. Till next time, |
Whiskey & Gunpowder Special Reports New "Backlash" Set to Rocket Oil Past $150...and Send Gas Soaring to Over $6 per Gallon The 10 Shocking Reasons for China's Pollution Problem Geothermal Energy: Investment in the Future Here's One Coal Stock That's Set to Skyrocket Investing in Exchange Traded Funds The Real Story Behind the True Gold Bull Market If someone forwarded you this copy, please look here to start your own subscription. Wanna let us know what you thought of today's issue? Now you can... click on this link. Whiskey & Gunpowder is a free e-mail service brought to you by a team of rebellious brigands. If you have not already done so, please click here to confirm your subscription. This will help us ensure you get every Whiskey & Gunpowder without interruption. Are you having trouble receiving your Whiskey & Gunpowder? You can ensure its arrival in your mailbox here. Please note: we sent this e-mail to finan4@finanmart.com because you subscribed to this service. To end your Whiskey & Gunpowder e-mail subscription, click here. Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice.We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. © 2008 Agora Financial, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the World Wide Web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Agora Financial, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. |
