Pay Me Weekly - Investors' Best Defense

	Investors' Best Defense
	By Elliott H. Gue
	Last Friday was Black Friday, the unofficial kickoff date for the holiday shopping season. The early read on this year’s big shopping day is that traffic levels were relatively strong, perhaps a bit stronger than last year. However, those shoppers were lured in by some hefty discounts; it’s unclear if that traffic will translate into real sales and profits. All indications suggest we’re in for a rough Christmas shopping season this year. As projected in this letter, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee has formally declared December 2007 as the start date for the US recession. This particular contraction has been led by consumers; Americans are firmly focused on saving and paying down debt rather than spending. The recent credit crunch has only made the consumer-led contraction worse, as buyers are finding it tough to obtain financing at attractive rates despite a bevy of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Consumer discretionary stocks aren’t my favorites at the current time; I suspect that, unlike all recessions since the mid-1950s, the coming recovery won’t be led by a resurgence in spending by the US consumer. Rather, I’m looking for a recovery first in industrial and infrastructure stocks as well as a resurgence in demand from emerging markets like China and India. The only retailers showing any signs of strength are discounters like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and a few select specialty stores. Although NBER doesn’t declare the end of recessions until months after they’re already over, there’s no doubt in my mind that the US is still in recession at this time. That means this recession has already lasted longer than the 11-month average for post-war contractions. Given continued deterioration in economic data, my bet is that this contraction could be the longest since the Great Depression, lasting as long, or longer, than the 1974 contraction.  Nonetheless, despite the current gloom, it’s highly likely we’ll see the beginnings of an economic recovery at some point next year. I continue to watch a simple indicator, the US Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), for any sign of a turn higher. As always, this simple indicator offers investors an early read on any signs of a turn for the better. Think you need to take costly drugs to lower your blood pressure ? Think again ! ! If you've got high blood pressure, your doctor's probably told you to take drugs to control it for the rest of your life. But not only are these medications often loaded with dangerous side effects, your average out-of-pocket cost can run as high as $1,116 a year! Now there's a safer, less costly way to drop your blood pressure to normal.   Plus you're guaranteed to see results in as little as 4 to 7 weeks ! This new blood pressure breakthrough is 100% natural, yet it's NOT a supplement.  It's so effective, over 90% of people who use it are able to drop their blood pressure to normal.   What's more, at least 60% of those using medication to control hypertension are able to cut back on or get off drugs for good ! Find out why The Harvard Heart Letter in their December 2006 issue reports this proven therapy "has been shown to lower blood pressure as much as a first-line anti-hypertension drug" and "may be money well-spent..." It works so well, a growing number of doctors and cardiologists now recommend this therapy to patients and use it to lower their own blood pressure ! Get the full scoop on this breakthrough solution right now. It's just one click away... And remember, the market typically leads the economy. Investors would do well to remember Warren Buffett’s statement that if you wait for the robins, spring is already over; in other words, if you wait to commit your money until after signs of an economic turn, you’ll miss a good bit of the market recovery. And with valuations as depressed across so many sectors as they are today, now marks an outstanding buying opportunity for those with longer than a six- to 12-month time frame. Click here to continue reading
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