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August 14, 2008 Summer Musings We’re still far off recent highs, and plenty of risk remains, but the Asian rally is still running strong. Although August has historically been a weak month for the Asian markets, there’s plenty of activity in the region right now. First, Asia is the cheapest emerging market to buy into in terms of valuation. Furthermore, the price of oil continues to drop, benefiting oil-dependent regions throughout Asia. Oil is currently trading below USD120 per barrel, coming down from the recent high of USD145 per barrel. More importantly, if oil drops below USD100--even if it’s just a short-term correction--Asia will be off to the races. For sometime now Asia has been in the doghouse, with investors selling substantial amount of stock. If this rally has further to run though, fund managers can’t afford to miss out on this buying opportunity. The cheapest markets currently in Asia are those of Hong Kong, The Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. The latter is only recommended for the very adventurous as the political elite has clearly lost their way. As a result every outcome is possible. The Philippines also offer the highest yield at 4.7 percent. Finally, Singapore also offers value and solid companies to select from. The problem there though is that as a small open economy it should be affected more than others from the global economic slowdown.
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Somewhat removed from the actions, hiding somewhere in the Greek Isles, I’ve been fortunate to spend some time with a few interesting individuals: an investment banker and a bond fund manager based in London, and a successful entrepreneur based in the US. Our conversations often turn to the markets, and our views remain diverse amid the short-term volatility. But there’s been an interesting change in the world of investment banking, and these folks agree the system is headed for a shift. It may not immediately affect the individual investor, but it will have a serious impact on the big guys. And the vibrations will be felt sooner rather than later. The change involves the way institutional investors are served. Previously, banks were setting up their own research teams in places such as India, where analysts worked at each client’s beck and call. The new set-up follows this scenario: The bank sets up an office where analysts are hired locally and paid local salaries, which are relatively high for local standards but much lower compared to New York or London. It’s important that these analysts are assigned to a particular client, whether through a hedge fund or a private equity firm. The client can request as many analysts as he desires and use them on an as needed basis. Analysts can be required to investigate a private company seeking funding, a firm planning to go public or an obscure company that has great growth potential in a remote part of the world such as Africa. There are no limits to this unbiased research, which is what investors enjoy most. Multiply Your Income With More Gains and Less Risk Four of KCI’s top editors want to share their post election predictions with you and show you how you can bulletproof your portfolio while racking up double-digit gains. There have always been boutique research firms that catered to few, but now the practice is gaining momentum and spreading throughout the world. Most believe this change will result in more reliable, independent research. The standards will change and individual investors will finally have access to valuable information. All of this may seem insignificant now because the global economy isn’t in the best shape, but it indicates that the investment process never ends, and money continues to exchange hands on the global markets. As is the norm throughout life, changes will come about, and a new cycle will begin. Enjoy the rest of your summer. |
| Growth Engines is a bi-weekly e-zine written by Yiannis G. Mostrous and published by KCI Communications, Inc. Mr. Mostrous is also the author of The Silk Road To Riches: How You Can Profit By Investing In Asia's Newfound Prosperity. |
Growth Engines - Summer Musings
